Monday, April 11, 2011

THE WAR OF DEMOCRACY








Gbagbo arrested in Ivory Coast

Posted: Apr 11, 2011 6:42 AM ET

Last Updated: Apr 11, 2011 2:58 PM ET

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Former Ivory Coast leader Laurent Gbagbo, who had been trying to cling to power from a bunker in his presidential compound, has been arrested by forces loyal to the country's recognized leader, Alassane Ouattara.
A spokesman for the French Embassy in the West African nation said Gbagbo, who had been holed up in his compound since last week, was apprehended by opposition troops on Monday.
A Reuters report said he was arrested by Ouattara's forces but with the support of French and UN troops. A UN statement rejected the claim that any of the agency's forces were involved in the capture, but Agence France-Presse later reported that UN peacekeeping troops are guarding Gbagbo at the same hotel in Abidjan where Ouattara has been based.
Earlier in the day, French tanks advanced toward his bunker, the first time that forces from the former colonial ruler have become involved in the ground operation to oust him. Twenty-five military vehicles, including tanks and armoured personnel carriers left a French army base.
Only several hundred metres from Gbagbo's mansion, at least 10 armoured vehicles flying the French flag driving through the neighbourhood had sent pro-Gbagbo gunmen fleeing. Two tanks took up a position at a key intersection, while the others advanced toward Gbagbo's home.
Issard Soumahro, a pro-Ouattara fighter at the scene, told The Associated Press that the ground offensive to seize Gbagbo began after the French launched airstrikes until at least 3 a.m. Monday.
"We attacked and forced in a part of the bunker. He was there with his wife and his son. He wasn't hurt, but he was tired and his cheek was swollen from where a soldier had slapped him," Soumahro said.
Gbagbo emerged from his bunker in a white sleeveless undershirt. He then was interrogated and brought to the Golf Hotel, where Ouattara has been trying to run his presidency since the Nov. 28 vote. Officials are now waiting for him to sign a piece of paper that formally hands power over to Ouattara, Soumahro said.

'The nightmare is over'

"The nightmare is over for the people of Ivory Coast," said Youssoufou Bamba, Ivory Coast's UN ambassador.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Gbagbo's arrest sends a strong signal to dictators and tyrants about the consequences of ignoring the people's will.
Dictators cannot disregard "the voice of their own people in free and fair elections," Clinton said. There will be consequences for those who cling to power, she added.
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said the capture ends months of unnecessary conflict.
"This is an end of a chapter that should never have been," Ban said. "We have to help them to restore stability, rule of law, and address all humanitarian and security issues."
He said Gbagbo's "physical safety should be ensured and I'm going to urge that."
Bamba, who was appointed UN ambassador by Ouattara, said Gbagbo will face justice. He predicted that fighting that has wracked the former French colony will stop as soon as all of the pro-Gbagbo forces learn of his capture.
Richard Downie, an Africa expert at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said it will be very difficult for Ivory Coast to mount a domestic court to try Gbagbo, saying it would "probably be a lighting rod for more unrest."
"(Ouattara) didn't want to come to power this way, though the barrel of a gun," Downie said. "He was elected fairly and freely. But this is the situation he was dealt. It's going to be incredibly difficult for him to bring the country together."
Ouattara's private television station broadcast images of a serene Gbagbo sitting on his bed. It was not immediately clear if the images were taken right after his capture.
"It's a victory ... considering all the evil that Laurent Gbagbo inflicted on Ivory Coast," Ouattara's ambassador to France, Ali Coulibaly, said on France-Info radio. He emphasized that the man in power for a decade would be "treated with humanity."
"We must not in any way make a royal gift to Laurent Gbagbo in making him a martyr," Coulibaly said. "He must be alive and he must answer for the crimes against humanity that he committed."
Some critics had accused Gbagbo of clinging to power in part to avoid prosecution by the International Criminal Court. ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo has begun preliminary examination of possible war crimes and crimes against humanity in Ivory Coast, including accusations levelled against forces seeking to install Ouattara.
"We need to think about what his future should be," Ban said, adding that's up to Ouattara and his government.
Ivory Coast was divided into a rebel-controlled north and a loyalist south by a 2002-2003 civil war. The country was officially reunited in a 2007 peace deal. The long-delayed presidential election was intended to help reunify the nation but instead unleashed months of violence.
Gbagbo, who won 46 per cent of the vote, held power for a decade and already had overstayed his mandate by five years when the November election took place. When the country's election commission and international observers declared he lost the election after it was finally held, he refused to step down.
The former history professor defied near-universal pressure to cede power to Ouattara. The two set up parallel administrations that vied for control of the West African economic powerhouse, the world's largest cocoa producer. Ouattara drew his support from the UN and world powers. Gbagbo maintained his hold over the country's military and security forces who terrorized his opponents.
Gbagbo had described efforts to oust him from power as tantamount to a foreign coup d'état.

French government distances itself from arrest

On Monday, the French government sought to distance itself from Gbagbo's arrest. Cmdr. Frederic Daguillon, the French forces spokesman in Abidjan, said French forces were not involved in Gbagbo's arrest.
Gbagbo has lost control of virtually the entire West African country over the last two weeks as forces loyal to internationally recognized winner Ouattara have swept down from the north and west into the commercial capital of Abidjan.
Pro-Ouattara forces began an offensive late last month to install him in power, sweeping across the country in just days before meeting resistance in Abidjan.
"Everyone here is traumatized," said Philomene Houe, a 39-year-old soap maker in Duekoue, a town in the country's southwest, where hundreds have been killed in post-election violence. "We've all lost something — a member of the family, our homes, our belongings."
Human Rights Watch has accused the pro-Ouattara forces of killing hundreds of civilians, raping political opponents and burning villages during the offensive to try to put Ouattara in office.
"While the international community has been focused on the political stalemate over the presidency, forces on both sides have committed numerous atrocities against civilians, their leaders showing little interest in reining them in," said Daniel Bekele, Human Rights Watch Africa director.
With files from The Associated Press

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Le Roi est mort, vive le Roi








EN DIRECT: La chute de Laurent Gbagbo

- 11.04.2011 18:19

Le président sortant ivoirien Laurent Gbagbo a été arrêté lundi à la mi-journée à Abidjan.
Laurent Gbagbo et sa femme Simone à l'hôtel du Golf, QG de Ouattara après leur arrestation le 11 avril 2011
Le président sortant ivoirien Laurent Gbagbo a été arrêté lundi à la mi-journée à Abidjan.
AFP - Str
Capture d'écran de la TV ivoirienne pro-Ouattara de Laurent Gbagbo après son arrestation le 11 avril 2011.
Le président sortant ivoirien Laurent Gbagbo a été arrêté lundi à la mi-journée à Abidjan.
TCI/AFP -
Des combattants pro-Ouattara après l'annonce de l'arrestation de Laurent Gbagbo le 11 avril 2011 à Abidjan
Le président sortant ivoirien Laurent Gbagbo a été arrêté lundi à la mi-journée à Abidjan.
AFP - Issouf Sanogo
Des partisans de Ouattara en liesse à Abidjan le 11 avril 2011.
Pour le camp Ouattara, "le cauchemar est terminé" avec la chute de Laurent Gbagbo.
AFP - Issouf Sanogo
Des combattants pro-Ouattara à Abidjan le 11 avril 2011
Les militaires français et de l'ONU avaient lancé de nouvelles frappes contre les derniers bastions de Laurent Gbagbo à Abidjan pour le faire plier.
AFP - Issouf Sanogo
LE POINT DE LA SITUATION A 20H15 -
- Le président sortant ivoirien Laurent Gbagbo et sa femme Simone ont été arrêtés lundi après plus de quatre mois de crise ouverte et des combats qui ont plongé Abidjan dans le chaos.
- Le couple, officiellement arrêté par des combattants d'Alassane Ouattara, se trouve sous la protection de l'ONU, au QG du président reconnu par la communauté internationale.
"Le cauchemar est terminé", a déclaré le Premier ministre Guillaume Soro. "Je souhaite qu'on arrête les armes", a dit Laurent Gbagbo.
La France, qui a joué un rôle clef dans l'issue de la confrontation en bombardant les dernières positions de Gbagbo, s'est défendue de toute participation directe dans l'arrestation de l'ex-chef d'Etat qui était au pouvoir depuis 2.000.
FIN DU DIRECT
20H00 - JE SOUHAITE QU'ON ARRETE LES ARMES, A DECLARE LAURENT GBAGBO - Il faut "qu'on rentre dans la partie civile de la crise", a-t-il dit dans une déclaration diffusée après son arrestation sur la télévision TCI du nouveau président Alassane Ouattara.
19H15 - "On a attrapé Gbagbo!" - Catherine Traoré, 27 ans, crie sa joie à Ouagadougou. La capitale du Burkina Faso, dont au moins trois millions de ressortissants vivent en Côte d'Ivoire, a explosé de joie. Klaxons bloqués, youyous, la liesse s'est emparée du marché "Rood-Wooko" dans le centre-ville. "On saute de joie parce qu'un individu mal intentionné comme Gbagbo, il ne fallait pas le laisser. Si on laisse des gens comme Gbagbo au pouvoir, il n'y aura plus de démocratie ici en Afrique", dit Issa Compaoré, informaticien de 28 ans.
18H31 - "Acteurs ou facilitateurs?" - Le rôle de la France dans l'arrestation de Gbagbo suscite des interrogations. "Cette arrestation n'aurait sans doute pas été possible sans les militaires français. Acteurs ou facilitateurs ?", relève Dominique Moisi de l'Institut français des Relations internationales (Ifri). Paris a multiplié les affirmations pour assurer que ses troupes n'étaient pas intervenues dans l'assaut de la résidence de l'ex-président. Depuis dimanche, les unités aguerries de la force Licorne avaient cependant bien préparé le terrain, avec des bombardements y compris à partir d'hélicoptères. Sans leur coup de pouce, difficile d'imaginer une chute aussi soudaine de Laurent Gbagbo.
18H15 - "Poches de résistance" - "A ma connaissance, la majeure partie des combats a pris fin, mais il reste des poches de résistance", explique le chef des opérations de maintien de la paix aux Nations unies, Alain Le Roy.
Sécurité assurée par l'ONU
17H48 - Pas "d'exil doré" - Laurent Gbagbo "ne devrait pas bénéficier d'un exil doré" à l'étranger qui l'exempterait de poursuites pour "crimes contre l'humanité", estime l'organisation Human Rights Watch (HRW). "Laurent Gbagbo a été mis en cause de manière crédible dans des crimes contre l'humanité et d'autres atrocités dont il devra répondre."
17H44 - ONU - La sécurité de Gbagbo et de sa femme Simone, qui ont été conduits au QG de Ouattara après leur arrestation, est assurée par des gendarmes de l'ONU, dans un appartement de l'hôtel du Golf, indique l'organisation.
17H36 - "Sécurisation" - Guillaume Soro a expliqué dans son allocution TV qu'une "opération de sécurisation" d'Abidjan allait être lancée, demandant aux Ivoiriens de "garder le calme". A l'adresse des militaires encore loyaux à l'ex-président, il a lancé : "il ne peut y avoir de chasse aux sorcières, rejoignez donc les Forces républicaines (pro-Ouattara)". Les combats ont précipité la capitale économique dont la population est évaluée à quatre millions d'habitants, au bord d'une catastrophe humanitaire.
17H25 - Réaction américaine - L'arrestation de Gbagbo envoie un "signal fort" à tous les dictateurs qu'ils ne peuvent pas "mépriser" en toute impunité la voix de leurs peuples, estime la secrétaire d'Etat américaine Hillary Clinton.
17H10 - "En soutien" - La force militaire française Licorne et les troupes de la mission onusienne en Côte d'Ivoire (ONUCI) étaient "en soutien de l'opération" lors de l'arrestation de Gbagbo, indique une source au ministère français de la Défense. "Si on met deux hélicoptères en l'air, c'est du soutien". Les responsables français avaient immédiatement insisté sur le fait que l'ex-président avait été arrêté par les combattants pro-Outtara, et non par des membres des forces spéciales françaises.
- LAURENT GBAGBO ARRETE : LE POINT A 17H00 -
-Le président sortant ivoirien Laurent Gbagbo a été arrêté en milieu de journée à Abidjan après une série de frappes de l'ONU et de l'armée française contre ses derniers bastions et une offensive des troupes d'Alassane Ouattara, président reconnu par la communauté internationale.
-II a été transféré au QG d'Alassane Ouattara. "Le cauchemar est terminé", a déclaré le camp Ouattara.
-Paris a démenti que l'ancien président, qui s'accrochait au pouvoir depuis sa défaite à la présidentielle du 28 novembre, eut été arrêté par des forces spéciales françaises.
16H43 - "Avec respect" - Laurent Gbagbo a "agi contre tous les principes démocratiques. Pour autant, il doit être traité avec respect et tout processus judiciaire qui s'ensuivra doit être équitable et organisé selon les règles", déclare à Londres le ministre des Affaires étrangères William Hague. Le ministre appelle à une "réconciliation" en Côte d'Ivoire.
16H37 - Ralliement - Guillaume Soro appelle les forces encore loyales à Gbagbo au ralliement.
16H30 - "Paix" - A Luxembourg, où il est en déplacement, le ministre français de l'Intérieur Claude Guéant estime que l'arrestation de Gbagbo va permettre au pays de "connaître la paix et un regain d'essor économique".
Défait et fatigué
16H28 - Gbagbo "s'est rendu" - C'est ce que précise l'état-major français. "Peu après 15H00" (13H00 locales), "Laurent Gbagbo s'est rendu aux forces républicaines d'Alassane Ouattara", explique à l'AFP le porte-parole de l'état-major, le colonel Thierry Burkhard.
16H25 - LA TV PRO-OUATTARA DIFFUSE DES IMAGES DE GBAGBO ARRETE - L'ancien président, 65 ans, semble en bonne santé, mais apparaît défait et fatigué. En tee-shirt blanc, il s'éponge le visage avec une serviette que lui tend son fils Michel, né d'un premier mariage. Des personnes lui donnent une chemisette verte qu'il enfile. Simone apparaît dans des images séparées, décoiffée et escortée par des hommes.
16H24 - Frappes intensives - De dimanche vers 17H00 (locales) jusqu'à environ 01H00 du matin, la mission de l'ONU, l'ONUCI, et la force française Licorne avaient tiré des missiles vers le bâtiment où se retranchait M. Gbagbo, au pouvoir depuis 2000, ainsi que vers le palais présidentiel, sapant la résistance des derniers combattants. De nouveaux bombardements avaient été menés lundi matin.
16h20 - "Bonne santé" - Gbagbo est "en bonne santé" et sera présenté devant la justice pour être jugé, annonce l'ambassadeur de Côte d'Ivoire auprès de l'ONU, Youssoufou Bamba.
16H08 - "Le cauchemar est terminé" - Première déclaration du Premier ministre d'Alassane Ouattara, Guillaume Soro. Il précise sur la TV pro-Ouattara que Gbagbo est "aux arrêts" de même que son épouse Simone.
16H06 - Nouveau démenti français - "A aucun moment les forces françaises n'ont pénétré" dans la résidence présidentielle de Laurent Gbagbo, affirme l'état-major des armées à Paris.
15H57 - Entretien Sarkozy-Ouattara - Les deux présidents viennent de s'entretenir longuement, peu après l'arrestation de Gbagbo, annonce l'Elysée.
15H48 - Arrivée - C'est vers 13H00 (locales et GMT), soit 15H00 à Paris, que Laurent Gbagbo et son épouse sont arrivés à l'Hôtel du Golf après leur arrestation, a affirmé à l'AFP Anne Ouloto, porte-parole de M. Ouattara.
15H41 - Simone Gbagbo avec son mari - L'épouse du président arrêté, considérée comme une radicale, se trouve avec lui à l'hôtel du Golf, selon un porte-parole de Ouattara.
Fin de partie
15H38 - Précision - Les forces spéciales françaises n'ont pas arrêté Laurent Gbagbo. C'est le point sur lequel insiste une source diplomatique française à Paris. "M. Gbagbo a été arrêté par les troupes de M. Ouattara, c'est vrai, mais pas par les forces spéciales françaises, qui ne sont pas rentrées dans l'enceinte de la résidence" du chef de l'Etat sortant, affirme à l'AFP cette source. C'est un démenti des informations faisant état de son arrestation par des troupes de la force française Licorne.
15H32 - GBAGBO ARRETE PAR LES FORCES DE OUATTARA - L'ambassadeur de France, Jean-Marc Simon précise que le président sortant a été conduit au QG du camp Ouattara, le président reconnu par la communauté internationale. "Laurent Gbagbo a été arrêté par les Forces républicaines de Côte d'Ivoire (FRCI, pro-Ouattara) et conduit à l'Hôtel du Golf par les FRCI", a déclaré M. Simon.
15H25 - DES COMBATTANTS PRO-OUATTARA SE TROUVENT DANS LA RESIDENCE DE GBAGBO -
15H21 - Ambassadeur - L'annonce de l'arrestation du président sortant est donnée par l'ambassadeur de France en Côte d'Ivoire.
15H20 - LAURENT GBAGBO ARRETE -
15H03 - DES BLINDES FRANCAIS DEPLOYES - Des blindés de la force française Licorne et de l'ONU étaient déployés à la mi-journée à Abidjan sur un boulevard menant à la résidence du président sortant Laurent Gbagbo. Les événements semblent se précipiter.
EN DIRECT - Les militaires français et de l'ONU ont lancé de nouvelles frappes contre les derniers bastions de Laurent Gbagbo à Abidjan. Les combats entre forces rivales ivoiriennes se poursuivent au sol.
© 2011 AFP

Sunday, April 10, 2011

Jessica Simpson Chosen by Michelle Obama to Sing for Military Families






Us Magazine - 1 hour, 39 minutes ago

Story photo: Jessica Simpson Chosen by Michelle Obama to Sing for Military FamiliesJames Devaney/FilmMagicUs Magazine
Jessica Simpson is getting patriotic!
The 30-year-old singer has received a personal invitation from First Lady Michelle Obama to perform for military families April 13 at Coors Field in Denver, Colo.
A longtime supporter of the troops, Simpson tells UsMagazine.com she's thrilled to have the opportunity.
PHOTOS: Stars who support our troops
"[The First Lady] asked me to sing for the troops. That's a huge honor for me," Simpson tells Us. "Just to be there and show my support and say thank you."
Simpson's performance -- happening during the Rockies vs. Mets baseball game at 7:50 p.m. (EST) -- is just one event taking place as part of Mrs. Obama and Dr. Jill Biden's initiative to honor America's service members.
VIDEO: This week's top Hollywood headlines
During the national two-day tour, the women will travel to Camp Lejeune, N.C., San Antonio, Texas, Denver and Columbus, Ohio to "highlight the work of Americans who have answered the call to serve our military families to showcase ways all Americans can serve them, from teachers and business leaders, to neighbors and volunteers," according to a statement.
Simpson's participation in the service initiative is her latest effort to give back to the troops.
PHOTOS: Celebs' good deeds
In October, the engaged singer chatted with soldiers aboard the USS Harry S. Truman during a visit to the Persian Gulf. "I'm forever changed after this last week," the singer Tweeted after her visit.
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Saturday, April 9, 2011

Gbagbo contre Ouattara, que fera la France pour sauver ce pays?

Le Golf Hôtel attaqué par les troupes de Laurent Gbagbo


Les forces armées fidèles à Laurent Gbagbo poursuivent leur contre offensive dans Abidjan. Elles se sont rapprochées du Golf Hôtel, quartier général d’Alassane Ouattara et des combats ont lieu à proximité. Après avoir repris le contrôle du Plateau et de Cocody, deux grands quartiers d’Abidjan, les forces pro-Gbagbo semblent décidées à renverser totalement la situation et à mettre la pression sur Ouattara, l’ONU et la France. Ce renversement de situation pourrait changer les cartes des négociations à venir.


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Friday, April 8, 2011

Le gouvernement américain peut fermer ses portes si le budget n'est pas approuvé



Possible deal in works as shutdown deadline nears
AP
People walk in the rain on the National Mall in Washington, Friday, April 8, 2011, toward the Capitol as Congress continues to debate in hopes of avoi AP – People walk in the rain on the National Mall in Washington, Friday, April 8, 2011, toward the Capitol …
WASHINGTON – Perilously close to a government shutdown, the White House and congressional leaders closed in on a possible deal to cut tens of billions of dollars in federal spending and avert the closure, officials said Friday night.
House Republican leaders summoned their rank and file to a late night meeting for what aides said would be an update on the talks.
Democrats said they were reviewing the details of a possible tentative agreement.
The developments unfolded as the administration readied hundreds of thousands of furlough notices for federal workers and warned that federal services from national parks to tax-season help centers would be shuttered without a deal by midnight.
"We know the whole world is watching us today," said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., during a day that featured incendiary, campaign style rhetoric as well as intense negotiation.
Rep. Jeb Hensarling, R-Texas, told reporters gathered outside House Speaker John Boehner's office there was no agreement yet, and there was no claim to the contrary from the White House or Senate Democrats.
But other Republicans said the framework of a tentative agreement was in place, ready to be outlined for the newly empowered GOP House majority that came to Congress determined to cut spending and rein in government.

Thursday, April 7, 2011

'This isn't about apologies. This is about the whole attitude of this party.'—Michael Ignatieff



Harper apologizes over rally screening

Posted: Apr 7, 2011 12:15 PM ET

Last Updated: Apr 7, 2011 1:41 PM ET

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper is apologizing to anyone who has been removed from his party's campaign rallies, three days after the allegations first surfaced.
Harper has been hounded by questions for the past three days over why students had been escorted out of Conservative campaign events.
Speaking at a news conference in the Ontario riding of Vaughan, Harper said his party is encouraging people to come and listen to his message.
"If anybody is kept out of any of our events that is there to hear our message, we obviously apologize to them," Harper said on Thursday.
"Our interest is in having as many people out to hear our message as we can. We are having huge meetings, we had another huge one last night. And we want people to hear our message."
'This isn't about apologies. This is about the whole attitude of this party.'—Michael Ignatieff
Despite the apology, Ignatieff continued to criticize Harper on Thursday over the decision to remove students from campaign events.
"This isn't about apologies. This is about the whole attitude of this party and this government towards the citizens of the country," Ignatieff said.
"It is not just about a problem of one student at the University of Western Ontario, it is the whole philosophy."
The Liberal leader said Harper's response to the controversy is following a similar pattern used in other instances when he came under fire.
"When the Bruce Carson matter comes up, he blames the [Privy Council Office], he blames the public servants on the security issue. When this young woman gets excluded, he says it's the RCMP's fault," Ignatieff said.
"Step up and accept responsibility that it's your meeting Mr. Harper. You're responsible for everything that happens, just as I'm responsible for everything that happens in my meetings."
The questions first surfaced after Awish Aslam, a second-year political science student at the University of Western Ontario, told CBC News that she and a friend were trying to attend a rally with Harper on Sunday in London when they were asked to leave by an RCMP officer.
She said the officer told her she was being removed because of her ties to the Liberals on Facebook. She said she had a photo of herself and Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff, which was taken at a Liberal event a few days earlier.
Other university students have also alleged they were removed from Tory events.

RCMP clarifies role at rallies

On Wednesday, the RCMP admitted it helped remove unregistered attendees from Conservative events in southwestern Ontario this week.
The national police force said it's not their job to help political party organizers limit access to political events.
The RCMP said in a statement it is responsible only for the protection of the party leaders, and that officers have now been reminded of their duties.
"The RCMP assisted the party organizers in restricting access to persons not registered for the private event," Sgt. Greg Cox said in the statement.
The role of the RCMP in the election campaign was also raised by NDP Leader Jack Layton, who was campaigning in British Columbia.
Layton praised the RCMP officers who have been assigned to his campaign, calling them "consummate professionals." He said political parties should not put the police in a position where they are doing political work on behalf of a party.
“I mean, was it the RCMP’s idea to start checking out people’s Facebooks, just independently? I’ve got to say, that would surprise me — they’re certainly not doing that on our tour," Layton said.
"I think it’s the prime minister who has got the explaining to do here."

Tory majority looks 'elusive': EKOS



CBC News

Posted: Apr 6, 2011 7:35 PM ET

Last Updated: Apr 6, 2011 9:13 PM ET

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A Conservative majority is "looking more elusive" and the party appears headed toward a diminished minority, according to a new EKOS poll.
A new survey by the polling company indicates the Conservatives have the support of 37 per cent of voters, with the Liberals trailing at 27.8 per cent. The poll suggests the New Democratic Party has 16.1 per cent support, the Green Party 9.3 per cent and the Bloc Québécois 6.9 per cent.
Voters were asked to indicate which party they would vote for if an election were held the day after they were surveyed.
"We need to look no further than the burgeoning concern with 'ethics and accountability' to understand why this issue is becoming a central focus and why the Conservatives appear to be backing up from majority to what would now be a diminished minority, which, according to the Conservative Party's own election gambit, would produce a change of government," the EKOS analysis said.
"In terms of the prospects of a majority it seems that is looking more elusive. Not only has the race narrowed somewhat but the Conservatives have fallen back badly on second choice, which the NDP lead on and the Liberals have risen as a second choice."
The party standings in the survey are not markedly different from a survey held just before the election call in March.
The Conservatives gained just under two percentage points, while the Liberal Party dropped less than one percentage point. The NDP gained about two percentage points and the Green Party dropped just over one percentage point. The Bloc Québécois showed the greatest shift, dropping about three percentage points.
The survey also indicates the Conservatives have a clear advantage when it comes to voter commitment.
"Their supporters are by far the most loyal from the last election, the most likely to have no other choice, the most like to be certain to vote, the least likely to change their mind and the most enthusiastic about their choice," the EKOS analysis said.
"It may, however, be that what makes the Conservatives so strong also makes them so limited in their ability to grow. … The final result is extremely uncertain at this point but the majority outcome is looking increasingly unlikely."
The survey of 1,171 Canadians was conducted between April 4 and 5 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.